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COVID-19 Prediction/Modeling/Discussion

Notes and pre-prints :

VII- Estimating the probability and the mean time to get contaminated at work or at home—in a confined room. “We develop a diffusion-convection theory to estimate the rate of COVID-19 propagation”—Coll. U. Dobrasmyl-DAMPT-Cambridge and C. Sieben EPFL. Effect of wearing masks, spread in open and closed spaces.

To come.

VI- Unexpected large success of confinement vs modeling predictions—June 15 2020 .We report here our thoughts of the declining phase of the covid-19 pandemic as if the confinement continued and we discuss a possible hypothesis on youtube.

V-Prediction of the second phase of deconfinement—Modeling based on data analysis from online data —with J. Reingruber (co-corresponding) and Andrea Papale.

Monitoring and predicting SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France after deconfinement using a multiscale age-dependent rate model
PRE-PRINT HAL

PDF - 3.5 Mo

Resume en francais : Monitorer et prédire l’évolution de la propagation COVID-19 à travers les groupes d’âge en utilisant les données internet de l’hôpital public français

PDF - 197.5 ko

IV-Report I : General predictions and conclusions from a novel multiscale COVID-19 model that accounts for policy changing in hospitals during pandemic.

PDF - 3 Mo

III-May 7 2020 : Youtube explanation : I- HERE for the French version and II-English version

II-Fermer les lieux de liberté en plein air—plages et parcs---pendant la crise du COVID-19 : une décision idéologique.---thoughts---in French- Flash note April 18 2020.

“Although it was thought that the French are much less disciplined than others, this crisis showed that we were actually not that bad. We propably deserve now the right to enjoy natural parks with the respect of social distance laws.” Download the pdf

PDF - 119.4 ko

I-Statistical analysis : Comparing wearing masks vs full containment using the growth in number of confirmed COVID-19 rate. Using data analysis, we show that wearing Mask is efficient compared to strict confinement.

Flash note April 4 2020. Download the pdf

PDF - 240.2 ko